Season Predictions (and the how comes and why fors if you want)

[midfielder]

Our squad is greatly improved IMO but so is everyone's we have to play squads of this quality... I have listed IMO what the Perth & SFC run on squad and they look by previous A-League standard quite strong.

Reddy
Herd, Williams, Lowry
Risdon, Marinkovic, Griffiths, Mills
Castro
Keogh, Taggart


Anjetovic / Danny
Ryall, Wilko, Jurman, Zullo
Dimi, Brilliante
Holosko, Ninkovic, Ibini
Brosque
Bench - O'Neill/Carney/Blackwood/Simon/Grant/Calver

 

[localpom]

I think we can surprise.The optimist in me is hoping for 6th and I think that's achievable. Faty and Tavares add a lot of quality and physicality....which will take pressure off the likes of Monty and Fab who can play their natural game. I can see 3 or 4 young players having really good seasons and if that happens we will do well.
Table finish: 6th or 7th
Golden boot : Roy O
Most Yellows : Faty
Most Reds : None
How long TW will last : Season
New fan favourite : Faty

 

[rbakersmith]

I think a finish inside the 6 is entirely possible given the squad going into the start of the season. It's not the greatest, but there is quality present.

Table finish: 6th
Golden Boot: Roy O
Most Yellows: Roy O
Most Reds: Monty
How long TW will last: Full season (if anything, the club can't afford another $$$ payout after paying $500K to Moss)
New fan favourite: Faty or Pain

 

[FFC Mariner]

Fraudsley is on a 12 rolling deal lessons have been learned

 

[Gratis]

I think we have a squad that can and will win games.

Our squad last season was weak in defence meaning we also had little foundation for attack. Despite that we scored goals. Problem is we let in waaay more.

Now we have a defence and a more creative defensive midfield. Our front pack being able to focus on attack has a lot of potential. I therefore think we are certain to ship less and score more than last season.

On the flipside I also think we lack in depth and if we have key players out to cards or injury we will struggle for results during those games.

Thus I'm a big ? for how we'll do. Somewhere between 6th - 9th probably.
I'm equally a) hopeful for even better, and b) fearful of a second spoon.

 

[Deej]

It's too early to predict where we will finish but IMHO we'll be battling to avoid last place again.

I just hope we're competitive in games next season, last year you just knew when heading into games that we were going to get beaten, outclassed and sooner or later someone in the back line would make a mistake.

Our midfield need to stop given away cheap possession, our pasing last year was absolutely horrible, opposition would complete signifcantly more passes than us in every game. I am hoping that Taveres can help in that area, but we also need our young players to step up, you can't keep using the excuse of "we're a young squad and players need time to develop", they've had a year or 2 in some cases and I expect to see players like Neill, Bingham, Rose, Ascroft etc. move up a gear otherwise they'll be on the chopping block.

Time will tell but we're in for a tough year again, no doubt about it in my eyes.

 

[Ancient Mariner]

Table finish: 6 or 7 with a good run of no injuries. With injuries 9 or 10. We have what looks like a competitive squad but have very light weight backup.
Golden boot : Roy O
Most Yellows : Monty
Most Reds : Faty
How long TW will last : All season
New fan favourite : Conor Pain

We must be competitive even if we finish down the table. If we are out of touch, and no hope, and falling attendances with half a dozen rounds to go, I fear plan B may be put in place, which I suspect will make many wish for games at NSO.

 

[Rowdy]

..... which I suspect will make many wish for games at NSO.

NEVER !

 

[dibo]

If we are out of touch, and no hope, and falling attendances with half a dozen rounds to go, I fear plan B may be put in place, which I suspect will make many wish for games at NSO.

What would that be, pray tell?

 

[Ancient Mariner]

What would that be, pray tell?

No reason to suspect, but just my fears. If we have a season like last year our support will drop to bugger all. I saw it at Spirit. The season that Rangers bought in the crowd at the first game was over 9,000 by the end of the year they were struggling to get over 2,000 and it went downhill from there.

What scares me is that if it goes bad this year (especially with crowd numbers) the FFA will be quite happy for the club to be moved to a capital city.

I do not want to see this. I do not think it is likely. I think it would be a silly move by the FFA. However, I think it is a possibility and is a fear I have (hopefully irrational).

 

[dibo]

I think it's even more unlikely than it was a year or two back.

The main reason is that we're now 11 months from the start of the new broadcast deal. All going to plan, it should bring us to a point where we stand a reasonable chance of breaking even on an ongoing basis. That isn't just a relief for MC, it also means prospective investors (or even all-out buyers) are less likely to be scared off by ongoing need for capital injections just to keep the doors open.

It opens the toolbox a little to offer some options on investing to recoup - marquee players start to get judged on whether they can deliver the sort of on-field performances that can generate an off-field return rather than whether they can put lipstick on a pig (Luis Garcia, come on down!). Additional investment in marketing, off-field football department staff and other things become real options rather than dream list items.

In a nutshell, it also means that the motivation to take drastic action and move markets is hugely reduced. The finish line is in sight for this deal and the cost to MC (or even FFA, if they're required to provide life support) to keep the thing going until the new deal is now less daunting.

Moving markets is risky, capital city market or not. Melbourne City barely ticked over as Melbourne Heart and the club still has a pitiful level of core support (sorry @JoyfulPenguin).

There's basically nothing to suggest CCM would do better if transplanted - if anything it might well be worse; we have our own identity and a pretty parochial support base. That same parochialism makes us somewhat exclusive; people might be less keen to support a transplanted club than a brand new club. If we're 'moved', it's more likely that we simply get sunk and a new entity is created elsewhere.

We have seen that before - North Queensland out, WSW in. But FFA lucked in with WSW because there was a blindingly obvious self-identified market; they can't expect to have a 6-month lead-in and make it work so easily a second time around. It'd take longer and more care to get it right again.

 

[Wombat]

Table finish: 6 or 7 with a good run of no injuries. With injuries 9 or 10. We have what looks like a competitive squad but have very light weight backup.
Golden boot : Roy O
Most Yellows : Monty
Most Reds : Faty
How long TW will last : All season
New fan favourite : Conor Pain

We must be competitive even if we finish down the table. If we are out of touch, and no hope, and falling attendances with half a dozen rounds to go, I fear plan B may be put in place, which I suspect will make many wish for games at NSO.

What is plan B?????

 

[Ancient Mariner]

I think it's even more unlikely than it was a year or two back.

The main reason is that we're now 11 months from the start of the new broadcast deal. All going to plan, it should bring us to a point where we stand a reasonable chance of breaking even on an ongoing basis. That isn't just a relief for MC, it also means prospective investors (or even all-out buyers) are less likely to be scared off by ongoing need for capital injections just to keep the doors open.

It opens the toolbox a little to offer some options on investing to recoup - marquee players start to get judged on whether they can deliver the sort of on-field performances that can generate an off-field return rather than whether they can put lipstick on a pig (Luis Garcia, come on down!). Additional investment in marketing, off-field football department staff and other things become real options rather than dream list items.

In a nutshell, it also means that the motivation to take drastic action and move markets is hugely reduced. The finish line is in sight for this deal and the cost to MC (or even FFA, if they're required to provide life support) to keep the thing going until the new deal is now less daunting.

Moving markets is risky, capital city market or not. Melbourne City barely ticked over as Melbourne Heart and the club still has a pitiful level of core support (sorry @JoyfulPenguin).

There's basically nothing to suggest CCM would do better if transplanted - if anything it might well be worse; we have our own identity and a pretty parochial support base. That same parochialism makes us somewhat exclusive; people might be less keen to support a transplanted club than a brand new club. If we're 'moved', it's more likely that we simply get sunk and a new entity is created elsewhere.

We have seen that before - North Queensland out, WSW in. But FFA lucked in with WSW because there was a blindingly obvious self-identified market; they can't expect to have a 6-month lead-in and make it work so easily a second time around. It'd take longer and more care to get it right again.

Fully agree and understand there is no logic to my fear.

Probably gun shy, having it happen to me twice before.

However, I think this year will be good (maybe not great but hopefully good will be good enough).

 

[Ancient Mariner]

What is plan B?????

See above.

 

[Wombat]

See above.

Yep.
I read it now.
It doesn't seam logical but I can understand your fear.

 

[JoyfulPenguin]

I think it's even more unlikely than it was a year or two back.

The main reason is that we're now 11 months from the start of the new broadcast deal. All going to plan, it should bring us to a point where we stand a reasonable chance of breaking even on an ongoing basis. That isn't just a relief for MC, it also means prospective investors (or even all-out buyers) are less likely to be scared off by ongoing need for capital injections just to keep the doors open.

It opens the toolbox a little to offer some options on investing to recoup - marquee players start to get judged on whether they can deliver the sort of on-field performances that can generate an off-field return rather than whether they can put lipstick on a pig (Luis Garcia, come on down!). Additional investment in marketing, off-field football department staff and other things become real options rather than dream list items.

In a nutshell, it also means that the motivation to take drastic action and move markets is hugely reduced. The finish line is in sight for this deal and the cost to MC (or even FFA, if they're required to provide life support) to keep the thing going until the new deal is now less daunting.

Moving markets is risky, capital city market or not. Melbourne City barely ticked over as Melbourne Heart and the club still has a pitiful level of core support (sorry @JoyfulPenguin).

There's basically nothing to suggest CCM would do better if transplanted - if anything it might well be worse; we have our own identity and a pretty parochial support base. That same parochialism makes us somewhat exclusive; people might be less keen to support a transplanted club than a brand new club. If we're 'moved', it's more likely that we simply get sunk and a new entity is created elsewhere.

We have seen that before - North Queensland out, WSW in. But FFA lucked in with WSW because there was a blindingly obvious self-identified market; they can't expect to have a 6-month lead-in and make it work so easily a second time around. It'd take longer and more care to get it right again.

No worries Dibo, the crowds at Heart were pretty dismal but even then we had what the FFA never seem to realise that they need, we were self sustaining and broke even a majority of the time. The Mariners do the same and get abused just like Heart did for it. One day the sugar daddies will stop being able to pour more and more money, which happened almost immediately at Heart, into their clubs and potentially face oblivion that's why we desperately need clubs to be self sustaining and not just bankrolled completely by millonaires.

 

[sydmariner]

I saw it at Spirit. The season that Rangers bought in the crowd at the first game was over 9,000 by the end of the year they were struggling to get over 2,000 and it went downhill from there.

I remember back then when we were playing in front of about 1500 fans at shittwater rugby park & virtually loosing every week.

 

[Ancient Mariner]

I remember back then when we were playing in front of about 1500 fans at shittwater rugby park & virtually loosing every week.

Good times.

Were you at NSO, the night of the storm, the year before when there was supposedly 800 there? I could only count 250.

 

[midfielder]

Good times.

Were you at NSO, the night of the storm, the year before when there was supposedly 800 there? I could only count 250.

I was there the night Zane scored

The NS were nay are the perfect example of how you can f**k up a strong club twas also there the night of the storm...

 

[sydmariner]

Good times.

Were you at NSO, the night of the storm, the year before when there was supposedly 800 there? I could only count 250.

Yes i was there & iirc there was 1004 there vs Melbourne knights which turned out to be the las ever NSO home game as the next game was washed out.