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Understanding Derivative Markets

midfielder

Well-Known Member
Understanding Derivative Markets

I hope this clears up all the questions about the Derivative Market for those who know what a Derivative Market is and for those who don't.

An explanation of the present state of our economy Derivative Markets: An Understandable Explanation

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around about Heidi's drink now pay later marketing strategy and as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar and soon she has the largest sale volume for any bar in Detroit.

By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on security markets worldwide. Naive investors don't really understand the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, their prices continuously climb, and the securities become the top-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, although the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the bank (subsequently fired due his negativity), decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar.
Heidi demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed, they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Therefore, Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy.

DRINKBOND and ALKIBOND drop in price by 90 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %. The decreased bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment extensions and having invested in the securities are faced with writing off her debt and losing over 80% on her bonds.

Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays-off 50 workers.

The bank and brokerage houses are saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock negotiations by leaders from both political parties. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by a tax levied on employed middle-class non-drinkers.

Finally an explanation I understand...
 

dibo

Well-Known Member
whatever. swan's doing just fine at the moment I think, and I don't count myself as a member of his fanclub, generally speaking. the budget tomorrow's going to be a very good one in the circumstances, [card carrying party member disclosure here] and between swan and the unsung hero of the piece - lindsay tanner - they're going just swimmingly when many others are sinking.

look out there, it's malcolm turnbull - turns out he's not waving, he's drowning.
 

FFC Mariner

Well-Known Member
Tanner deserves to be piloting Kev's titanic while Swann parks the cars in Parliament House.

Be careful what you wish for mate, Libs will prop turnbull up long enough to get smashed in the next election, then Costello and Hockey will then take over as all this short term populism bites everyone in the ass.

Keep your lot out for another 10 years if they keep up this panic policy stuff
 

Arabmariner

Well-Known Member
FFC Mariner said:
Keep your lot out for another 10 years if they keep up this panic policy stuff
Don't bank on it.

The NSW public have been stupid enough to keep that lot in state parliament for yonks.
 

FFC Mariner

Well-Known Member
Dunno mate, Kev got in by appealing to the aspirational "working people" with large mortgages in City fringes, recipients of middle class welfare......Howards' battlers if you will.

Who are the 1st people to get shafted by higher unemployment, interest rates and inflation??
 

Arabmariner

Well-Known Member
FFC Mariner said:
Dunno mate, Kev got in by appealing to the aspirational "working people" with large mortgages in City fringes, recipients of middle class welfare......Howards' battlers if you will.

Who are the 1st people to get shafted by higher unemployment, interest rates and inflation??
Just chuck them $900 each.

Keep them sweet for a while.
 

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