More relocation chat/brawling

[gull]

They need to quit the chat about moving games and commit 100% to the coast. If that's going to cost the club, let the people of the Central Coast know what has to be done and put it on the community to support the club. They shouldn't take it on themselves to look for savings by running down what they offer to the region.

Yep let us know what the issue is and see if we can help. If it means increased membership costs to keep all games at home then I'm happy to help.

 

[gull]

On the 11 games on the CC and 2 away in Northern Sydney ... I tho the 11 was nominated by the club ...

The quote was "we'll ATTEMPT to move ONLY two games away". Sounds like the thin edge of the wedge to me.

Great discussion BTW.

 

[Wombat]

Not sure how much credit he can take for the band. Cannon and the Loose Cannon are good, nobody was claiming that they’re not.



There *isn’t* certainty about how many games he plans to take away from the Coast, only that there will be some.

The lack of certainty mixed with talk about spreading the gospel gets people reading between the lines and wondering if he simply means that the Coast isn’t big enough, and whether a permanent relocation is inevitable.

We remember the Bears and the Northern Eagles.



We have no idea whether the supposed 20% of Sydney members (and for what it’s worth, I’m probably one of them) *want* games in Sydney rather than Gosford.

There’s an open question – why did they become members in the first place, and what does that tell us about their future behaviour?

For me, it’s because despite where I live *at the moment*, I’m a Coastie. My loyalty is to the Central Coast. My loyalty to our club stems from the club being a Coastie club. f**k with that and you’re f**king with my loyalty to the club over nearly a decade.

On rent, if it’s $75k per game, it amounts to $975k per season. Going on numbers bandied around the place that suggest the average A-League club spends ~$8 million a year, it’s around 12% of total outlays.

For our incomes, we know we get a grant of about $2.5m per annum from the FFA through the TV deal, and if we were running a $1m loss (total guess) that still means we were making some $4.5m from sponsorships, matchday revenue, memberships and merchandise.

Even if we played at another stadium for free, and broke even that way, we’re then f**king around with the $4.5m of our income that is generated from our local market and the attachment we’ve made in the community.

Realistically, even if we got to the best case scenario (Adelaide United’s deal, rumoured to be about half of the $75k figure) we’re still only halving the deficit – saving 6% of outlays, but f**king around with 56% of our revenue.

We’re talking about f**king over 80% of our customers and mucking about with 56% of our revenue for the sake of a 6% saving!

Memo to CCMFC – get a better idea, that one stinks.



I get that we struggled for money before he arrived. I get that he has committed a lot of cash to the club.

But seriously, you’re an accountant, if I'm getting any of this wrong then let me know.

Let’s say he bought the club for $6 million (as in, that’s what left his wallet, combining the cost of taking on the equity *and* the debt) and he’s stumped up another $2 million in operating losses. He only had a licence guaranteed for another year or two.

If he’s a businessman’s little toe, he would only have bought the club if he’d done his due diligence and seen that he’s getting some value there – there’s a sale price he can get down the track.

With a repaired balance sheet, he’s now looking at the profit/loss and trying to repair that. Fine. That means he’s got an ongoing drain.

But we’ve got a cash vs asset issue here.

Future prospects have brightened considerably since he came in. For a start, the TV deal put $600k a year into the bottom line that wasn’t there before. That’s a big structural improvement.

I understand we’ve also made some changes to what we do with the stadium that have cut some costs too – perhaps bringing our break-even crowd under 10k.

Lastly the licences are all extended by 20 years to 2034 (largely in response to his urging!).

We’re now in a situation where very likely the next TV deal will include financing expansion of the league again, and we’re guaranteed a spot for 20 years.

The intrinsic value of the club (and therefore a potential sale price) has just gone up considerably. His asset is appreciating due to basic changes to how we operate and how the league operates.

If he wants to sell, in all likelihood he’ll make back his money and more, but if he wants to stay but needs some help on the cash supply, it’s also far more likely he could find another investor to come in and share the load.

Why would he go screwing with the most fundamental thing about the business – where the club plays – in the context of a rapidly improving business situation?

Probably your best ever post Dibo. Great work.

 

[midfielder]

Gotta love the way the Sour Bitter Shits [SBS] continue to support our club...

Philip Micallef in an interview with De Bohun, asked the perfect " have you stop beating your wife question""'

The Mariners are always challenging for the honours but their crowds are somewhat disappointing. What is the problem in Gosford?

Then consider the question asked about the Drive Bys..

The Wanderers have been an unqualified success, albeit with Football Federation Australia assistance in a very short time. Why can't the other clubs do what they have done?

The SFC / Roar / MV question ...

Would you like big-city clubs like Sydney FC, Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar to consider playing in smaller venues to generate a better atmosphere once their tenancy agreements expire?

Interesting De Bohun answer to the Mariner question... it includes this HHHmmmm gem make up your own mind...

the Mariners have to keep trying to engage the locals and potentially those from the upper north shore. That's part of their strategy.

http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/a-league/news/1188698/De-Bohun-confident-of-A-League-future

 

[Blackadder]

It goes without saying that the Central Coast football market is limited, the only question is what can be done to further expand the mariners base ..better marketing on the Coast (how???), or look to a yet untapped area adjacemt to the Coast that has been largely ignored by Smurf FC.

 

[gull]

It goes without saying that the Central Coast football market is limited, the only question is what can be done to further expand the mariners base ..better marketing on the Coast (how???), or look to a yet untapped area adjacemt to the Coast that has been largely ignored by Smurf FC.

The crowds have been there in the past. Maybe better to ask why they now longer come...

 

[Gratis]

MC's atrocious PR isn't helping

 

[kevrenor]

It goes without saying that the Central Coast football market is limited, the only question is what can be done to further expand the mariners base ..better marketing on the Coast (how???), or look to a yet untapped area adjacemt to the Coast that has been largely ignored by Smurf FC.

The "Upper North Shore" .. is basically Ku-Ring-Gai ... and is a small market (about 109,297) ... what is De Bohun on about?

 

[dibo]

Pulling figures out of ultimate a-league and running some analysis,

• our long term home average is 9,392

• our average at Gosford (we've played four matches away from Gosford over the years at Canberra, SFS and NSO) varies a lot by weekday:
  • Mo: 13,040
  • Tu: 12,919
  • We: 10,255
  • Th: 9,516
  • Fr: 8,377
  • Sa: 9,858
  • Su: 8,877

• It also varies a bit by team:
  • Ade: 8,704
  • Bri: 7,624
  • GCU: 9,612
  • MHT: 7,364
  • Mel: 10,453
  • NZK: 7,718
  • New: 10,364
  • NQF: 6,809
  • Per: 9,760
  • Syd: 10,998
  • Wel: 8,332
  • WSW: 16,337

• Lastly, it varies a bit by season:
  • 1: 7,899
  • 2: 9,828
    
  • 3: 12,738
    
  • 4: 10,465
    
  • 5: 7,765
    
  • 6: 7,886
    
  • 7: 9,628
    
  • 8: 9,969
    
  • 9: 9,601

So different teams draw well, different days draw well.

It's notable that the Friday night crowds *tanked* this year in Gosford, probably because SBS knocks some numbers off:

• 1: 8,817
• 2: 10,032
• 3: 9,052
• 4: 9,363
• 5: 7,718
• 6: 8,521
• 7: n/a
• 8: 7,923
• 9: 5,967

It knocked 27% off our long term Friday average. Other clubs lost out as well - Melbourne Heart lost 25%. Victory lost 17%.

On the flipside, Adelaide was up 11%, Scum were up 7%, Sky Poos were up 17%!

It might simply be that it suits some clubs more than others.

What lives in the memory longest for me is big derby matches on a Saturday night. They combine our best drawing day with our best drawing opponents.

What also lives long in the memory is what happened in the years our numbers crashed:

• The club was on austerity measures, with what must have been both the least expensive and least competitive squad ever
• The club *also* took two 'home' games to Canberra, drawing rubbish crowds *and* antagonising supporters
• Lastly, our active support moved from bay 16 and splintered, with an 'exclusive' group separating itself from the rest of the group

The hangover from season 5 in particular hung over the crowd for years, to the point that being in the top 2 much of the year on the way to the GF didn't lift us in season 6, and it took winning the league to bring us up over 9k.

 

[dibo]

One of these days I'm gonna go the whole hog and build up a regression model to analyse crowd numbers, allowing me to control out a range of factors.

 

[Blackadder]

The crowds have been there in the past. Maybe better to ask why they now longer come...

Why they are no longer coming, and what can be done go hand in hand IMHO.
The publicity from MC has been highlighted in the past, but does it really impact those that don't follow the club on a daily basis?
You can only grow so far, before you have to look at ways to continuing growing and not stagnating or going backwards.
Even though the Upper North Shore is a relatively small area, any increase can only be beneficial for the club.

 

[gull]

As per Dibo's post we had a 12,700 average in season 5, down to a season average this season of 9,600 when we were reigning champions.

That's 3,000 per match on average that no longer go. Much easier to get them back than chase new markets.

 

[finally retired]

Why they are no longer coming, and what can be done go hand in hand IMHO.

I agree that this is very important, but how does the club find that out? who will they ask?
I think the match day information locally is pretty poor. Perhaps, as a commuter, I don't hear too much on local radio during the day, but apart from the back-page (or inside the back-page) of the Express, there seems to be very little marketing of match days on the coast. Several friends who I would class as "casual" match goers, have no idea when games are on unless I tell them, so I don't think the word is getting out very far. I am a believer in the old adage that you have to spend money to make money.....and I think that if advertising the Mariners was better thought out, the crowd numbers would improve which would bring about an improvement in the overall match day experience, with more likelihood of people backing up for the next game.

 

[Big Al]

Style of play - Plenty of people you chat to in the bars or cabs etc say I used to go. They don't like the style or the players. They are probably not 100% football people who tried the new ride in town. Liked it but when scared off couldn't be bothered coming back. But they still read the papers & know when it's game day. Can you get them back.

Dibo weather & form would be a massive variable in your model.

Friday night against the Victory I think - Team playing like shit & the weather was shit. as an example. That game would have created a drop in Friday nights. Also would have effected the next game as many would have still had the cranks from the Victory game.

Would a more attacking but less successful team who say light the cannon a min. twice a home game be more beneficial for crowd numbers.

Also sometimes people love an under dog & success gets boring. Once you keep achieving it the only way is down.

 

[Big Al]

I agree that this is very important, but how does the club find that out? who will they ask?
I think the match day information locally is pretty poor. Perhaps, as a commuter, I don't hear too much on local radio during the day, but apart from the back-page (or inside the back-page) of the Express, there seems to be very little marketing of match days on the coast. Several friends who I would class as "casual" match goers, have no idea when games are on unless I tell them, so I don't think the word is getting out very far. I am a believer in the old adage that you have to spend money to make money.....and I think that if advertising the Mariners was better thought out, the crowd numbers would improve which would bring about an improvement in the overall match day experience, with more likelihood of people backing up for the next game.

I think that is where facebook, Instagram etc play a big part.

If you can get those casuals to visit these pages or get on mailing lists( don't know what u call it for the internet) they can then be reached via these sauces.

Like u I travel so you get no word but when I do drive there is usually something on the radio about the mariners. Especially 101.3 as they are a partner.

 

[dibo]

As per Dibo's post we had a 12,700 average in season 5, down to a season average this season of 9,600 when we were reigning champions.

That's 3,000 per match on average that no longer go. Much easier to get them back than chase new markets.

The league's average also dropped though -

1. 10955
2. 12927
3. 14610
4. 12180
5. 9796
6. 8393
7. 10488
8. 12556
9. 13188

The last two/three seasons' figures are inflated by getting rid of poor performing sides (NQF, GCU) and bringing in a stronger performer (WSW). If you look only at the 7 permanent clubs, you have the following averages:

1. 11907
2. 14420
3. 15006
4. 12932
5. 10979
6. 9765
7. 12015
8. 13899
9. 14032

There's an ongoing repair job on the league's crowds, but we're consolidating.

I don't think anyone doubts that our core is now closer to about 7-8k to the 4-5k it was in the early days, so I think we're looking healthier for the long term.

If you want a measure of how we're looking, compare our highest averages and our lowest averages in each year (and hoe much bigger the biggest is than the smallest):

1. 16,669 / 3,909 (4.26)
2. 27,728 / 3,014 (9.20)
3. 26,064 / 7,596 (3.43)
4. 24,516 / 7,193 (3.41)
5. 20,750 / 5,392 (3.85)
6. 15,234 / 3,434 (4.44)
7. 20,281 / 3,546 (5.72)
8. 23,089 / 7,176 (3.22)
9. 21,808 / 8,440 (2.58)

We're a lot more even this year than we've ever been, and that means good things for the entire comp. We're far less likely to see clubs falling over, which builds investor confidence across the league, and makes potential new entrants feel like there's something really solid to step into.

 

[eenfish]

Attendance numbers really bounced up after they got rid of Fury and GCU.

 

[nebakke]

Style of play - Plenty of people you chat to in the bars or cabs etc say I used to go. They don't like the style or the players. They are probably not 100% football people who tried the new ride in town. Liked it but when scared off couldn't be bothered coming back. But they still read the papers & know when it's game day. Can you get them back.

Dibo weather & form would be a massive variable in your model.

Friday night against the Victory I think - Team playing like shit & the weather was shit. as an example. That game would have created a drop in Friday nights. Also would have effected the next game as many would have still had the cranks from the Victory game.

Would a more attacking but less successful team who say light the cannon a min. twice a home game be more beneficial for crowd numbers.

Also sometimes people love an under dog & success gets boring. Once you keep achieving it the only way is down.

The style of play thing, I think that's interesting because it's one of the first ones we get thrown in our face on forums etc, but I have some serious doubts about its influence.
Ultimately I don't think the playing style matters much to the casual goer - the mums and dads who go because it's an occasional bit of fun and little Bruce or Sheila play for the Dragons etc. etc.... I understand that one of the points of the playing style claim, is the number of goals, but tbh, to me at least, outside of derby wins, I think the most exciting games are the close ones and then it doesn't really matter whether it is us or them who look the most likely to score, the main point is that you're on the edge of your seat for the whole game.
Some of the most boring and frustrating games that I have attended, have been the Brisbane games that we were always going to lose, in spite of the claims about playing style.. The ones where you can see that 90th minute goal coming throughout the whole game (HOW MANY F****** TIMES!?)
It is for the same reason that I found several of the loses this season, incredibly boring... It's not so much that we were playing an uninteresting style, more that we were playing poorly altogether and it was obvious that we would get smashed.

For mine, I still think marketing is a primary driver... There's a real sense of pride around the Mariners but I think they're also taken for granted a bit... People happily mention them as their team, but don't necessarily go to the games. I'm not sure how to grab them, except for persistently advertising and maintaining the presence that is there now. Certainly, threatening to take them away just works the other way around. I too maintain that, if they hadn't been going on about moving the team, I think we would have had a bumper season, in spite of how poorly we played at the beginning.

 

[go you yellow]

For mine, I still think marketing is a primary driver... There's a real sense of pride around the Mariners but I think they're also taken for granted a bit... People happily mention them as their team, but don't necessarily go to the games. I'm not sure how to grab them, except for persistently advertising and maintaining the presence that is there now. Certainly, threatening to take them away just works the other way around. I too maintain that, if they hadn't been going on about moving the team, I think we would have had a bumper season, in spite of how poorly we played at the beginning.

My perspective is the crowd numbers are linked to the effort of the club and players efforts to engage the community. Key to this is the schools , getting the players to visit / run clinics with kids and create the hero's of the coasts youth. They will get the families of the coast along to the games. It will reinforce the sense of pride in our community based club.
You can't do this sporadically it has to be continuous and that is what we have failed to do.

 

[Roy Law]

Winning over the EPL snobs is part of the problem; many of them just don't want to know about the A League; if it isn't Man U, Arsenal or Liverpool etc they don't want to know (How many of the Liverpool fans who wore their Reds' shirts to watch Robbie Fowler go to A League games?)
My best mate is a Crystal Place fan living in Sydney; he loves his football. He watches the A League on TV. He likes Wellington because Paul Ifill was a Palace favourite; he follows the Wanderers because Poppa is a Palace legend. I have taken him to Bluetongue a couple of times, he always enjoys it; he has taken his son to Sydney occasionally and again enjoys it. He has never been to the Wanderers. He gets that I get the A League but it simply has not grabbed him enough for him to actually buy a membership. I think there are loads of fans like him around the country.
The A League is getting stronger and stronger - witness the amount of A League players in the Socceroo squad compared with the squad of 2006 which, I think, only had Milligan, Beauchamp and Archie. The revolution that Ange is bringing about with the Socceroos is going to give the local game a kick along in coming years. I am hoping that the improvement in quality will force more of the EPL snobs out of their armchairs.