midfielder
Well-Known Member
The AFL have declared war on all football codes. The NRL, after years of ridicule, are trying to establish relationships. Union is losing its most prized possession to football in that the demographic of the private schools in Sydney has changed from pro-union to pro-football.
So I through why is the AFL so keen on this war and where does football stand.
Seems to me you those poor buggers in Melbourne have AFL everywhere down there- from afar it appears as if the Melbourne Media see it as their kinda of duty to promote AFL. Certainly nobody questions what they say just take it as read.
Very difficult to argue with and I assume get a message across,.. I say..let facts be your friendnot hype.
So I through why not do a little research and see why the AFL have declared this war on football especially.
A famous general once said never under estimate your enemy which most know.. but the general went on to also say never over estimate your enemy. Within the context of enemy of AFL & NRL, war whatever name we care to give it.
Look at the state population figures below , then look at the strength of the NRL as it is not down on its knees simply waiting for someone to make the final kill in fact it is growing. AFL for all its talk IMO is no where near as powerful as they believe they are, and most believe they are.
Australia population is as follows:
NRL
Population NSW7, 049
Population QLD 4, 257
Population ACT ...355
Total pop.11, 660or 55% of the population
AFL
Population VIC...5, 266
Population SA 1, 604
Population TAS...505
Population WA..2, 058
Population NT207
Total pop9, 600.or 45% of the population.
Total Aust..21, 260
There are some differences that need to be adjusted for the southern towns in NSW are AFL towns and there would be some cross overss in NRL states & AFL states to the other code. Also NT is populated mainly from NSW & QLD so the AFL claim that it is a AFL town while not incorrect is way overstated
Adjusting for the above differences
Total NRL .11, 660
Less Southern Towns .. 250
Less Converts NRL states...500
Plus Converts AFL states.......75
Total NRL ..10, 985
Total AFL10, 274
Total Australia ..21, 260
Its clear NRL has the population base over AFL even through my number especially the 500, 000 & the 75, 000 are guesses it would not be to far from the truth.
These figures in themselves overstate the AFL hold as they are based on the 2004 census and pro rated to the current population when in fact the NSW, ACT & QLD grew much quicker than the southern states.
In fact by 2012 the figure is expected to read 56% to 44%, a reasonably big difference.
To the next falsehood in these figures with no adjustment made, for the growth in Perths population is more from NSW & QLD, thus people exposed to NRL not AFL. The NT population has a very high % of NSW & QLD people, thus although more than likely a AFL territory it would only just be, and could become a NRL if they wished to fight for it.
The problem for the AFL is they are in what marketers call a mature phase of the market. The AFL market share in the southern states is falling almost impossible to see growth whereas decline is almost inevitable (assuming football. League & union) will take some market share.
There seems to be a belief in the southern states that the NRL is in the same market phase but much more advanced along the path than AFL. Whereas in fact the NRL is expanding .how .simply because regional NSW & QLD are the fastest growing parts of Australia, but also and here is where AFL can get no where near is in PNG & NZ.
Everyone in both NZ & PNG have a NRL team,the population of these countries is PNG 5, 130 million & NZ 4. 263 million. The 9.393 million people is more in pure numbers than the southern states. The NRL own PNG and are expanding in NZ..both will add to future revenue streams and for NRL growth. The NRL plan a PNG side by 2014.
The NRL have decided, after years of ridicule, to establish relationships with football as they do not wish to fight both. NRL words not mine; to find areas of mutual benefit. This I am sure was not seen in the AFL master plan. Essentially two codes essentially working together were they can, and thus the old divide and conquer rule which the AFL have played very well in Sydney by always saying to league supporters football is your enemy will wash no more.
Also and not well known is the NRL on an Australia wide count i.e. count regional Australia other than the AFL capital approach actually have more TV viewers. Why do you think Fox choice League and not AFL in its code battle to put Optus out of business. For proof see attached web references;
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-...expansion.html
http://www.thinktv.com.au/SiteMedia/...6361a65a7d.pdf
The AFL is undoubtedly the most professionally run best connected sport in Australia, it has the biggest media deal, the most free to air, the biggest crowds. The best media, the most profitable. Accept all this ..however..that does not mean they are the most ready for the coming years.
My Dad had a saying there is only one thing worst than always talking bullsh*t and that is believing your own bullsh*t. The AFL as I see them actually believe their own bullsh*t. Here are some examples;
The 150 year of AFL when if fact if anything it would have been a rugby game of some sort. Even heard A D on offsiders today saying a new club playing one of the 150 year clubs ,,,,,,,,,,,, errrrrrrrr vomit it was a rugby match for F sake
They are the top TV rating sport when the NRL are,
The junior numberscough, cough errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr anyone who signs a Aus Kick even the free ones given away are counted.
That the draft system actually works when in fact in the latter parts of the season it is a race to the bottom for some to get draft picks.
The AFL has a growing international expansion programand profile.my arse it has none.
AFL has enough quality players to set up the two extra teams, errrrrrrrrrr cough, cough, errrrrrrrrr, sorry .what .you must be kidding, Simple as the AFL has 44 players per tea, and thus need 792 quality players. Errrrrrrrrr cough on there junior strength say its 400, 000 which it is not this means they need to find 792 players in 400, 000 that is 1 player in every 505 players is of enough quality to play at that level. If you study any sport player numbers and get a ratio to those players good enough to earn a living from playing then it is way way way above the 505 and as we all know the AFL number on junior is inflated but never questioned, simply they do not have enough players.
For AFL to continue to succeed they need the billion dollar deal and the unchallenged hype they go on with, like the 150 years of AFL, and biggest TV rating is pure BS.
Football needs to challenge the AFL hype ..howis the difficult. Maybe letters off to Media watch (small part at best), call talk back (helps if enough people call and call often enough).
My suggestion is to send to as many advertising agencies, Key financial people in media organisations especially the overseas owners of 7 , 9 & 10. As sports journalism in Melbourne as I see it is a AFL player who can talk and present themselves well. The same to Fox & Telstra who are major players, if enough people own shares in these companies ask question that these facts present and at key decision maker level let the facts be known. Another maybe good area is the Australia Financial Review.
This is not to say football cannot expand and we have a lot in our arsenal that also needs to put out their:- 8 national teams, World Cup places for mens and womens teams, Olympic teams, the Asian Champions league, Pan Asian tournament.
This also needs to go to the same people, as well as analysis below detailing how footballs Australia wide appeal could affect ratings and as with league there are markets in PNG & NZ to increase revenue streams.
If we draw a table of what percentage of the national audience do you need to draw to obtain an audience of say 2 ,000, 000 on TV.
Code ..Base.% of Total needed for 2, 000, 000
AFL. .. 10, 274.19% of the viewing base needs to watch
NRL .10, 985. 18% of the viewing base needs to watch
A-League...21, 260..9% of the viewing base needs to watch
In summary dont overestimate the AFL, dont underestimate the NRL,.certainly dont underestimate football products. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLEY SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT THE HYPE IN AREAS THAT HURT.
So I through why is the AFL so keen on this war and where does football stand.
Seems to me you those poor buggers in Melbourne have AFL everywhere down there- from afar it appears as if the Melbourne Media see it as their kinda of duty to promote AFL. Certainly nobody questions what they say just take it as read.
Very difficult to argue with and I assume get a message across,.. I say..let facts be your friendnot hype.
So I through why not do a little research and see why the AFL have declared this war on football especially.
A famous general once said never under estimate your enemy which most know.. but the general went on to also say never over estimate your enemy. Within the context of enemy of AFL & NRL, war whatever name we care to give it.
Look at the state population figures below , then look at the strength of the NRL as it is not down on its knees simply waiting for someone to make the final kill in fact it is growing. AFL for all its talk IMO is no where near as powerful as they believe they are, and most believe they are.
Australia population is as follows:
NRL
Population NSW7, 049
Population QLD 4, 257
Population ACT ...355
Total pop.11, 660or 55% of the population
AFL
Population VIC...5, 266
Population SA 1, 604
Population TAS...505
Population WA..2, 058
Population NT207
Total pop9, 600.or 45% of the population.
Total Aust..21, 260
There are some differences that need to be adjusted for the southern towns in NSW are AFL towns and there would be some cross overss in NRL states & AFL states to the other code. Also NT is populated mainly from NSW & QLD so the AFL claim that it is a AFL town while not incorrect is way overstated
Adjusting for the above differences
Total NRL .11, 660
Less Southern Towns .. 250
Less Converts NRL states...500
Plus Converts AFL states.......75
Total NRL ..10, 985
Total AFL10, 274
Total Australia ..21, 260
Its clear NRL has the population base over AFL even through my number especially the 500, 000 & the 75, 000 are guesses it would not be to far from the truth.
These figures in themselves overstate the AFL hold as they are based on the 2004 census and pro rated to the current population when in fact the NSW, ACT & QLD grew much quicker than the southern states.
In fact by 2012 the figure is expected to read 56% to 44%, a reasonably big difference.
To the next falsehood in these figures with no adjustment made, for the growth in Perths population is more from NSW & QLD, thus people exposed to NRL not AFL. The NT population has a very high % of NSW & QLD people, thus although more than likely a AFL territory it would only just be, and could become a NRL if they wished to fight for it.
The problem for the AFL is they are in what marketers call a mature phase of the market. The AFL market share in the southern states is falling almost impossible to see growth whereas decline is almost inevitable (assuming football. League & union) will take some market share.
There seems to be a belief in the southern states that the NRL is in the same market phase but much more advanced along the path than AFL. Whereas in fact the NRL is expanding .how .simply because regional NSW & QLD are the fastest growing parts of Australia, but also and here is where AFL can get no where near is in PNG & NZ.
Everyone in both NZ & PNG have a NRL team,the population of these countries is PNG 5, 130 million & NZ 4. 263 million. The 9.393 million people is more in pure numbers than the southern states. The NRL own PNG and are expanding in NZ..both will add to future revenue streams and for NRL growth. The NRL plan a PNG side by 2014.
The NRL have decided, after years of ridicule, to establish relationships with football as they do not wish to fight both. NRL words not mine; to find areas of mutual benefit. This I am sure was not seen in the AFL master plan. Essentially two codes essentially working together were they can, and thus the old divide and conquer rule which the AFL have played very well in Sydney by always saying to league supporters football is your enemy will wash no more.
Also and not well known is the NRL on an Australia wide count i.e. count regional Australia other than the AFL capital approach actually have more TV viewers. Why do you think Fox choice League and not AFL in its code battle to put Optus out of business. For proof see attached web references;
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-...expansion.html
http://www.thinktv.com.au/SiteMedia/...6361a65a7d.pdf
The AFL is undoubtedly the most professionally run best connected sport in Australia, it has the biggest media deal, the most free to air, the biggest crowds. The best media, the most profitable. Accept all this ..however..that does not mean they are the most ready for the coming years.
My Dad had a saying there is only one thing worst than always talking bullsh*t and that is believing your own bullsh*t. The AFL as I see them actually believe their own bullsh*t. Here are some examples;
The 150 year of AFL when if fact if anything it would have been a rugby game of some sort. Even heard A D on offsiders today saying a new club playing one of the 150 year clubs ,,,,,,,,,,,, errrrrrrrr vomit it was a rugby match for F sake
They are the top TV rating sport when the NRL are,
The junior numberscough, cough errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr anyone who signs a Aus Kick even the free ones given away are counted.
That the draft system actually works when in fact in the latter parts of the season it is a race to the bottom for some to get draft picks.
The AFL has a growing international expansion programand profile.my arse it has none.
AFL has enough quality players to set up the two extra teams, errrrrrrrrrr cough, cough, errrrrrrrrr, sorry .what .you must be kidding, Simple as the AFL has 44 players per tea, and thus need 792 quality players. Errrrrrrrrr cough on there junior strength say its 400, 000 which it is not this means they need to find 792 players in 400, 000 that is 1 player in every 505 players is of enough quality to play at that level. If you study any sport player numbers and get a ratio to those players good enough to earn a living from playing then it is way way way above the 505 and as we all know the AFL number on junior is inflated but never questioned, simply they do not have enough players.
For AFL to continue to succeed they need the billion dollar deal and the unchallenged hype they go on with, like the 150 years of AFL, and biggest TV rating is pure BS.
Football needs to challenge the AFL hype ..howis the difficult. Maybe letters off to Media watch (small part at best), call talk back (helps if enough people call and call often enough).
My suggestion is to send to as many advertising agencies, Key financial people in media organisations especially the overseas owners of 7 , 9 & 10. As sports journalism in Melbourne as I see it is a AFL player who can talk and present themselves well. The same to Fox & Telstra who are major players, if enough people own shares in these companies ask question that these facts present and at key decision maker level let the facts be known. Another maybe good area is the Australia Financial Review.
This is not to say football cannot expand and we have a lot in our arsenal that also needs to put out their:- 8 national teams, World Cup places for mens and womens teams, Olympic teams, the Asian Champions league, Pan Asian tournament.
This also needs to go to the same people, as well as analysis below detailing how footballs Australia wide appeal could affect ratings and as with league there are markets in PNG & NZ to increase revenue streams.
If we draw a table of what percentage of the national audience do you need to draw to obtain an audience of say 2 ,000, 000 on TV.
Code ..Base.% of Total needed for 2, 000, 000
AFL. .. 10, 274.19% of the viewing base needs to watch
NRL .10, 985. 18% of the viewing base needs to watch
A-League...21, 260..9% of the viewing base needs to watch
In summary dont overestimate the AFL, dont underestimate the NRL,.certainly dont underestimate football products. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLEY SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT THE HYPE IN AREAS THAT HURT.
