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CCM v Wellington Paranormal

adz

Moderator
Staff member
I legitimately hate hearing the negative stats for any team from the "side-kick commentators", it's such an off-putting discussion point when they are supposed to be highlighting, showcasing and promoting the league but any opportunity they get they pull out stupid stats like "This will be the 308th min the Mariners haven't scored against X club, how does that affect the X rating" blah blah...such rubbish and always makes me think the person who says it comes across as uneducated and can think of nothing important or of particular relevance to say other than a shitty negative stat for each team.

I hope they do away with it and find something better to discuss going forward.

Yep and wtf is that XG anyway? Twice now it's said something like Mariners XG (Expected Goals) 2.16, but they already scored 3 at that point. Are we expecting the Mariners to score -0.84 now?
 

BrisRecky

I'm an idiot savant without the pesky savant bit
XG ....what a load of f**king bollocks, i saw a FA cup tie with Man U v some squad of nowhere near premier league blokes and it ended up nil all after 90 ...wonder what the XG by p+ would of been then ....its some toss sack in marketing making shit up to make them sound like their actually keen
 

Kilsin

Well-Known Member
Yep and wtf is that XG anyway? Twice now it's said something like Mariners XG (Expected Goals) 2.16, but they already scored 3 at that point. Are we expecting the Mariners to score -0.84 now?
That's it mate, it's not being used the way it was designed and XG updates every 5 mins are just silly.
 

Ironbark

Well-Known Member
I am not certain of this but thought the XG was based on chances created.

If so, it appears to be proportionate - that is an XG of 2 means you're expected to score 2 goals to their 1, or an XG of 0.5 means half a goal to their 1 (so 1 goal if they score 2) based on chances created

...I think

But is utterly pointless. It's only an indicator of who is creating the better chances, not how many goals will actually be scored or by who. Football of all games is the least likely to go with the stats. How many times do you see a team utterly dominate and lose 1-0.

P.S. This is my interpretation, I actually know nothing about XG or how it works!
 

FFC Mariner

Well-Known Member
Yep and wtf is that XG anyway? Twice now it's said something like Mariners XG (Expected Goals) 2.16, but they already scored 3 at that point. Are we expecting the Mariners to score -0.84 now?
XG is mathematically correct but utterly meaningless. Justifies selling people analysis software. FM22 runs on it (think its in the match engine somewhere) really annoying
 
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Kilsin

Well-Known Member
Expected goals (or xG) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. This value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken.
 
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adz

Moderator
Staff member
Oh how weird. So by the time they have said xg is whatever blah blah the number will be totally out of date and useless... the ball would have to basically roll a couple meters and the calculation will be different
 

turbo

Well-Known Member
Tap ins in the 6 yard box have a higher XG than near your own halfway?

Needed that calculation to help everyone. Absolute bollocks
xG doesn’t do much if you’ve watched a match but if you’re trying to get a view at a glance I can see it filling a gap that goals, shots, shots on target doesn’t cover.. could use some tweaking but I think it’s largely just being over hyped
 

Kilsin

Well-Known Member
Oh how weird. So by the time they have said xg is whatever blah blah the number will be totally out of date and useless... the ball would have to basically roll a couple meters and the calculation will be different
Yeah, it's basically a prediction algorithm that is being used incorrectly in the a-league every few mins to add filler content to boring commentary.
 

bikinigirl

Well-Known Member
. i figured that xG was something created to make a video game work ... to try and predict what would happen in the real world

. somehow it now seems OK to use that to discuss what should have (?) happened in the real world ... instead of talking about what has actually happened in the real world
 

Omni

Well-Known Member
xG can be a useful metric. It helps you understand if the chances reflected in shots were actually good. If a team has a lot of shots and a very low xG you know what you need to focus on
 

Rising Sun

Well-Known Member
xG can be a useful metric. It helps you understand if the chances reflected in shots were actually good. If a team has a lot of shots and a very low xG you know what you need to focus on
Not against the use of stats but if a coach can get any useful insight from this particular stat that they can't from just watching the game then they probably shouldn't be coaching
 

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